The Cryptocurrency Investing podcast is back!
And in this episode, I’m honoured to be joined by Filbfilb and Philip Swift to discuss how to trade the final few months of the cryptocurrency bull market.
DecenTrader affiliate link: https://decentrader.com/?ref=24
Please note: I’ve used an AI transcription service, which means there’s probably plenty of errors. At some point I’ll get a human to correct it.
Louis Thomas 0:00
The podcast is back to you guys. And today I am absolutely thrilled to be chatting with two of the most respected and legitimate traders in all of the crypto world and that is Philby, Philby, and Philip Swift. And in this episode today, we talk about a whole bunch of stuff, including price targets for Bitcoin and the kind of short to long term. Same for altcoins. We talk about targets for the bull market as a whole, right? What’s the ultimate tippy top price is going to be for things, how to spot signs of the market talk when we get there, so you can cash out at the right time. And a whole lot more. Before we get into this conversation. I do just want to say that they are both the co founders of the trading platform descent trader, which is designed to be your kind of one stop shop for trading insights in the crypto world. I’m a paid member of this service myself and it is pretty darn awesome. When you sign up, you get daily briefings so you can be kept up to date with what’s going on, you gain access to bespoke trading tools and indicators to get a little bit of a kind of edge over the market as well. And you can also check out their highly popular predator indicator which is designed to give you the kind of clearest picture of the market as a whole as well if as I believe we are in the final kind of leg of the bull market now the final few months before we perhaps see some kind of top in the market then now is definitely the time to consider gaining premium access to the insights of some of these top traders in the crypto space now, so you have the best chance of kind of timing the market and taking some healthy profits. And as I’ve already mentioned, I’m a paid member myself, this is not a sponsored video, but I do have an affiliate link down below if you are interested in checking out the service and you want to support me in the process as well. So link down below. Otherwise enjoy the conversation.
Unknown Speaker 1:30
Louis Thomas 1:30
I am joined with Philby, Philby, and Philip Swift, two of my favorite kind of traders in the crypto world. And it’s wonderful to be joined me both How are you both doing today?
Unknown Speaker 1:41
Very good. Thank you, Louis. Thank you for having us on. Yeah.
Louis Thomas 1:45
Awesome stuff. I’ve got quite a lot I want to talk to you today. So I feel like we may as well just jump right into it. And so I thought we’d start with no more better place to start than with Bitcoin. It’s in a kind of funny place at the moment where for the past few weeks, we’ve gone to the high of about 64,000. We’ve gone down to a low I think so far of around the kind of high 40s 48,000. And so, I’ll just open the floor up I guess with you first Philby Philby, we will technical analysis. Where do you feel Bitcoin is right now? What do you think we’ve gone in store for us in the kind of short term?
Unknown Speaker 2:17
Well, I think we’ve we’ve had a natural sort of correction period for Bitcoin, you know, run out a little bit of steam, where I think investors are sort of struggling to buy above the 60k level at the moment. I think there is still interest from the institutions, but often, you know, we need the pump, the market needs to pull back particularly after it’s been, you know, highly leveraged, where people have been winning for a long time, you need to get that correction where, you know, to shake the weekends out, you have to pull the market back down. And then that in turn will you know the fear will deliver the supply to the buyers who can effectively buy in push back up slowly. I mean, you know what, I don’t believe we’re at the manias phase of the cycle yet, which, which is where you would see that parabolic blow off. And before that happens, you would kind of expect the institutions to accumulate at lower prices. So for me, it’s perfectly normal price action within what is a very strong uptrend. And I think, you know, we’ve got some charts we can share with you to support life, if you like. Yeah, sure. So this is just something I was looking at earlier, I very much think we’re at sort of this sort of stage of the cycle at the moment. And I’d say we haven’t had that mania phase yet. So at the moment, you know, we’ve done a three times the previous all time highs. So previously, in the previous cycle, you know, we went from around 1k, up to 3k, and then had a really strong pullback to the 20 week moving average, you can see the sort of distance from the 20 week moving average, when it gets to about two to x the distance from it, it needs to come it needs to come back. So that’s ultimately what we’ve now seen, we didn’t quite get to the 20 week moving average, it’s still possible, you know, that we need to correct and maybe do another double bottom zone here. But we did effectively see the market sort of front running it, which is which is really what you want. And in terms of cyclically trying to predict what’s going to happen with the market, you know, it’s obviously an extremely difficult thing to do. But the most important thing I think, really in in the Bitcoin market and the Bitcoin cycles is the psychology of the modelers. And obviously, you know, a three times your previous all time high is quite a big psychological level for people, you know, 20 60k people will have made quite a lot of money. So to shake out the market that makes perfect sense to me. And the good news would be in the previous market, actually 60 the equivocal of 60k actually became the bear market support. So this is kind of where my head is at the moment is that we’re just correcting at this point in time. And I think interestingly, actually at the exact same point in the previous cycle, so here in the orange, we’ll have the bitcoin price. And in the blue, we have Bitcoin dominance, obviously, ults have been doing really, really super well lately. And you can kind of see that at this point in the cycle last time, it’s actually exactly what happened, you know, we had the dominance drop off almost exactly to the same level, just just for the first time below 50%. So extreme some striking similarities between the two In my opinion, interestingly, actually, Bitcoin then was the net beneficiary actually after that. So that might spoil a little bit of my my narrative about aetherium. But, but fundamentally, you know, it just looks exactly like the previous cycle to me. Interestingly, olts themselves, I know, you did ask me about Bitcoin, but I’m sort of off piste a little bit. But olts themselves, you can see how strong they’ve they’ve done so well, bitcoins been going effectively through this 60k consolidation also just absolutely busted off, you know that they’ve already effectively taken reclaimed their all time high. And Bitcoin hasn’t yet. So. So yeah, I think it’s, it’s all all good. Is, is my high level opinion.
Louis Thomas 6:18
Yeah, your points out? We haven’t quite touched that moving average yet. But would you say that perhaps on kind of bands of probability that we have seen the kind of low for this movement and around 48k?
Unknown Speaker 6:28
I think, well, that is the main question at the minute. So what I’m showing here is a bit more of a colorful chart. So this is our, this is my predator indicator, which I use, which is basically color coded. A, you can probably work it out yourself. But turquoise is you know, we’re starting to get bullish green is, you know, very strong bullish trend. oranges, you know, take concern, and red is, you know, we’re in a downtrend. So you can see, it kind of helps with identifying where bitcoins going to start to have a little bit of a bother. So it’s been really super helpful with with trading, but at the moment, you can see, you know, we’re still red, so we’re not really out of the woods yet. You can see, actually, interestingly, on the 26th of April, we have this really large bullish engulfing candle, which sort of took us back up. And the same thing actually happened on the 26th of March as well. Prior to that, we had also this really super strong bullish candle on the first of March. So we’re basically just seeing the same sort of thing for the past three months. And, you know, in each of those consolidations, there was a little bit of sideways, but it didn’t actually quite come back down to the bottom apart from in this instance here. So I’d say yes, on the basis of probability, you know, there’s going to be a lot of people who sold out down here, and they will probably want to rebuy. So, I don’t think it’s totally out of the woods until we reclaimed the 50 day moving average, which we’re currently below and has been supported throughout the whole of the bull market. So that would, you know, make sense to me that, you know, it’s, it’s where we would effectively, that’s the line in the sand effectively, for me is like, once were above 5756 57k and find support, I think, you know, it would be reasonable to assume that we’re not going to go back down there. But you know, front running, it was a very good sign. And it was there was a lot of indication that bids were getting filled. And the price action itself was very scammy, in order to get down there. So my, my personal view is, you know, if we can stay above this sort of 54k level, consolidate here and then maybe break 56, then we’re on to, you know, much higher highs, potentially up towards 80,000. I think, you know, this consolidations probably got enough behind it now to take us there, whereas it didn’t before, you know, we needed to draw in the supply to fill some bits. So, you know, there’s, there’s a lot of other positives out there. Like, for example, the, this orange line is the total usdt market cap, it’s probably our best indication for us normal plebs of whether or not there’s actually any, you know, money still flowing into the market. So the fact that that increased from what is that? It’s, the market caps increase from 44 billion to 50 billion to six, 6 billion increase by 15%, or whatever. That’s, you know, while we’ve gone sideways here, and as you’ve probably seen, and I’ve commented on many times in the past, one of the best indicators that there’s you know, we’re going to move higher is when todos maga cops going up, I mean, they don’t deploy it immediately. So it’s there’s normally around about a 30 day lag are found with it. So I think there’s there’s definitely signs there to me. Now that we’ve had that shakeout that we need, and yeah, we’ll probably won’t probably won’t come back down to 20 week moving average. But I’ll say that tentatively, like usual.
Louis Thomas 10:10
Yeah. Oh, that’s awesome. Thank you for that therapy. And I guess, if I would just bring in Philip, at this point then and ask Philip, if his or if you’re on chain analysis, does that kind of fit in with Phil B’s more kind of technical analysis of the situation? Yeah, it
Unknown Speaker 10:24
does. It does. I mean, I do think we had a pretty healthy correction. As Phil mentioned, the system has been over leveraged. And I think there was pretty strong evidence not only in the funding rates in terms of traders, but also on chain, we did see some signals that there was a buy the dip opportunity a few days ago. So yeah, I do agree what Phil’s saying here. I don’t know if you want me to share my charts. Or if Phil, you want to carry on going through yours first, what do you want to do?
Unknown Speaker 10:54
I think it makes sense to show yours actually.
Unknown Speaker 10:56
Yeah. All right. So I’m gonna go a bit big picture here To start off with, and tell me if you want to kind of roll down into the lower timeframes, but I will eventually so. So I specialize in on chain analytics, and also building valuation models for Bitcoin. And they end up looking like these live charts here. So these charts update every day. And this one is called the Bitcoin investor tool. And it is designed to be the most simple sort of valuation tool for Bitcoin to help us understand whether current price is undervalued or overvalued. And you can see here the black line is the bitcoin price over time. So throughout its history, going right back to the first mistake price of bitcoin right to today’s price here. And all this indicator does is it tries to indicate the times in the market where there’s there’s euphoria, there’s FOMO. And that’s this red area here. And when the market is extremely depressed in the depths of the bear market, where we all want to pack up and think bitcoins dead, that’s those green areas there. And so the way that this is created is by simply using the green line, which is the two year moving average of bitcoins price, we take the two year moving average bitcoin price, you get the green line. When price goes below that three year moving average, that highlights we’re in the depths of the bear markets. Now you can see over history there. And then, to get the red line, we’re simply multiplying that two year moving average, by five. And when we do get this upper red line, which you can see tops off, because the tops off the top of the bull market. So it’s been a really simple but effective tool to show the market cycles for Bitcoin over time. And if we look where we are now, you can see we obviously, back down, if I just zoom in here, you can see we’ve dipped into that green zone around the time of the march COVID crashed last year. And since then, we’ve just rallied up and haven’t looked back. And few weeks ago, we was saying in decent trade that the market was looking a little bit overheated. And this is one of several indicators showing that and you can see it was approaching that red line, but didn’t quite get there since pullback and we’re now at around whatever today’s price is around $54,000. Whereas the red line is up at around $80,000 price Phil mentioned a minute ago, which suggests to us that there’s still quite a bit lopsided go yet, before we even started getting to those overheated levels. And even when we do breach those levels, you can see there’s normally that actually tops out, because that’s when the market goes parabolic. So I’d expect something similar to happen this time. And at the moment that red lines trending up. So I think things are pretty good for us to continue up over the next couple of months at least.
Louis Thomas 14:03
I was just gonna I was noticing as well that that red line is kind of curving up quite quite significantly. So I was wondering, does it point to a possible price kind of later this year, where that red line would end up price wise? Yeah, I
Unknown Speaker 14:17
mean, so, this indicator sim is simply based on moving averages. So that is based around the previous price action, you can see is trending up. And as assuming the bitcoin price starts to move towards it, I would expect this red line to probably be approaching the $100,000 mark by the time price hits it. And then as I say you tend to get a good week or two of parabolic price action after there so I would expect at some point this year price to be going above $100,000 assuming that we get a similar sort of market cycle with retail coming in and FOMO Again towards the end of the cycle, and I can show you some other charts that suggests that there’s a decent chance that’s probably going to happen.
Louis Thomas 15:07
Please do. Yeah,
Unknown Speaker 15:08
so that was quite interesting. But that is only based on price action. So I thought I’d also show a chart that looks at actual on chain data. So on chain analytics is really useful because it actually shows you what participants in the mark market are doing and have done historically. And it can give you a clue as to what’s going to happen, going forwards. So this chart is called the one year plus huddle wave chart. And it’s, what it’s doing is it’s looking at the percentage of all Bitcoin that are in the system. So that have been mined, the percentage of those that have been not moved from one wallet to another Wallet for at least a year. Okay, so people listening might have heard of hotter waves for Bitcoin before, that’s an on chain tool. This one is the same as always, but it just looks at the percentage of Bitcoin that has not moved on chain for over a year. Again, so that is this orange line you can see here. So what we can see is that currently 55% of all Bitcoin has not moved for at least one year now. Now, obviously, there’ll be a good percentage of that, that is just lost Bitcoin. But what it also shows us is that there’s still a good proportion of bitcoiners, who are huddling their Bitcoin expecting higher prices in the future. And so what you can see if you look at this chart, and the red dots, and the green dots get to give a bit of a clue here. So I’ve used the red dots to highlight the tops of the previous highs, and the green dots to show the depths of the bear market. And they’re equivalent on the hodel wave. And what you can see is this is kind of inverse relationship between price and this one year plus auto wave. And the reason why that happens, and you can see that sort of cyclical relationship over time, the reason why that happens is because experienced bitcoiners buy up Bitcoin, in the depths of the bear markets here. So if you if we take the last market cycle 2015, you can see that the hodel wave was quite high, it was around 16%. And so what that means is that lots of bitcoiners, lots of old jeans, were buying Bitcoin and holding it for at least a year, because they were anticipating higher future prices. So what happens, they huddle that restricts supply in the system. And then as demand starts to increase, like we saw last cycle, and like we’ve been seeing the past year, this cycle, those Oh, geez, who’ve been huddling for at least a year, then start to realize their profit. And then we see this orange line start to decrease. And that’s happened every cycle in bitcoins history. And we’re starting to see if you look now we’re starting to see this cycle too. So as price is appreciating, everyone who was huddling in the depths of the bear market is slowly starting to cash out. Now, the interesting thing about this is it tells us roughly where we might be in this cycle. So we can see in previous cycles, my last cycle, we ended up topping out when the one year Hadaway for decreased all the way down to 43%. And cycle before back in 2013, had gone down to 39%. So we can estimate if this is gradually increasing over time, we can estimate probably going to top out around, say 47% this cycle. And at the moment, it’s only 55%. So this is one of many tools that suggests to us that actually, you know, we’re probably still got a good, parabolic run ahead of us before we start talking out. So this kind of lines up with what you were saying, actually, Phil, in terms of us possibly being around this sort of what did you say sort of three $3,000 level?
Unknown Speaker 19:13
Yes. So the correction from the 3000 level, but you see, the hodel wave really dropped off after that. And that kind of lines up with what I’m saying, which is that we need that fear to shake out some of those, like relatively strong hands in the market, which I think is what we’re kind of seeing now. So if we do move up from here, I think it’ll be interesting to see if those people are shaken out. And there they are weaker hands, but that might give us the strength, you know, to go on and do the next leg up, which is which is good.
Louis Thomas 19:47
What’s interesting about that particular chart is from the kind of late 2018 bottom, that the hollaway have actually went up for quite a long time. More and more so. So does that suggest as well just that we’ve got You know, a decent amount of kind of room to go because of that fact as well.
Unknown Speaker 20:03
Do you mean around around here, Lou? Or Yeah, yeah. Yeah, it does. I mean, it went higher. You’re right. Like, if we look here it was 63% this cycle, and 60% last cycle. But what we are seeing so so you can see that the the highs are increased in each cycle. But also so it’s so the lows, so yeah, do you think is probably I would, I would be expecting the top. Or I’ll be certainly managing my risk, let’s say, when this gets to around 47%, I think that’ll be probably fairly close this time round to a top. So I’ll certainly be paying attention to the syndicate when it gets to around those rules.
Louis Thomas 20:48
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
Unknown Speaker 20:51
So that’s it. That’s an interesting on chain one. And I do think because of the market psychology playing out pretty similarly, each cycle in terms of Oji hodlers, wanting to realize profit as price appreciates, I think there’s a very good chance that we’ll see similar thing play out this time around on that one. So that’s interesting. Another two that is on based on on chain data, which is kind of suggesting that we’re not near that top yet, is one called MVR, the Zed score. So I don’t know, maybe some people have heard of MDR, there’s an indicator before. This one’s similar to that, but it uses a Zed score, which I’ll explain in a minute. So this indicator, is able to pick out the market tops of bitcoin price action, or has done historically, to within two weeks. It’s normally within about a week, actually. So when this blue indicator, goes up into that red zone, it’s telling us that the price of bitcoin is getting really, really overcooked, and the market is euphoric. And actually, you know, as an investor using these sorts of tools, that, you know, it’s probably not a bad time to start realizing some profit and managing risk. And so that’s how we use these sorts of tools. And that’s what MVR Viz at school can do is very effective at picking these these markets over the top as you can see here, if I zoom into 2070, you can see this blue indicator went up into that red zone. When price was around. This is shown market cap, but I think that was when the price was around 16 $17,000. So it is pretty close to the actual top and it is about a week, tops out. So it is is or has been very accurate. In the past,
Louis Thomas 22:50
if you’ve ever heard of a kind of bullish bias, you would you would look towards 2017 2013 tops where it did actually go above the red. But if you look back at 2011 rally, that just kind of peaks below it Does that concern your talks we seem to be, we seem to have been fairly close to that already inertia.
Unknown Speaker 23:10
So a lot of what you’ll find with a lot of on chain indicators like this, this is one good example of it is in these very early days, there were so few participants, and the price was so volatile. And there’s so little price history that quite a few on chain indicators just go a little bit out of whack. So I mean, because we’re talking about the price of bitcoin, I mean, this is market cap here, but I know the price here was like less than $1. Too many dollars. So it was it was very, it was just very, like volatile and the market was in its infancy. So I think that’s really why that happened. And I think as Phil mentioned earlier, like we did get close to market euphoria here, when we were sort of around 60k, a month or two ago. But I do think I do think we’ve still got a good level of retail euphoria still to come like I remember how it was back in 2017. And I don’t think we’re close to that yet. And actually looking at this indicator, you can see since then it’s pulled back quite significantly. So this does suggest that we can still have, you know, a pretty strong increase in in price action and quite quickly to the upside before this starts getting into that red zone. So it’s interesting, but how it actually works is it looks at the difference between market cap which is this line here, which is price times the number of coins in circulation. So that’s why it pretty much looks like the price. And then the orange line is something called realized cap, which is instead of using today’s price in that calculation, it uses the price of all bitcoins when they last moved from one wallet to another wallet. So Just as an example, let’s say Phil sent me one bitcoin, that Bitcoin today is worth $54,000. But he sent me that Bitcoin, like just over a year ago when the price was $10,000. So in this realized price calculation that would be using the $10,000 price rather than today’s price. So that’s why this line is is significantly lower than the market cap. And this blue indicator looks at extremes between those two data points. And so it’s a way of telling us when the current market price is just getting a bit overextended and a bit overheated.
Louis Thomas 25:43
Yeah, as Phil Philby said as well, that he’s seeing some kind of parallels between this cycle and the 2017 one. So I guess from that perspective, it would make sense to look back at the most recent cycle that sort of December 2017 talk for us to try and find something similar again, this time around. Is that fair?
Unknown Speaker 26:00
Yeah, I think so. I think so. I mean, there’s I think we are seeing different stages of maturity with each cycle. And so I think whilst it’s not going to play out exactly like it did last time round and in fact, we’re already seeing it’s quite different. I think it’s definitely worth comparing or best compare last cycle versus say 2011 when it was it was pretty mature market back then. But we might use double top like we had in 2013 that is entirely possible. You know, maybe we top out you know, we have this indicator going into the red you know, the next couple of months and then a retrace and then later on in the year or early next year, we could possibly have a final final top. So yeah, that that is also possible as well. So that’s pretty interesting, we think and it does suggest that there’s quite a bit of upside potential still in terms of bitcoin price action. And then finally, one that we use another on chain tool we used to help indicate when there’s a buy the dip opportunity for bitcoin price action on lower timeframes is this what’s called spent output profit ratio, or Sapa. I’m not going to go into the details of how it works, like on our YouTube channel is that I’ve done a video explaining it if anyone wants to watch it, you can go to the decent trading YouTube channel. But essentially, what it does is it highlights pretty good buy the dip opportunities when we’re in a Bitcoin bull market. So if I just zoom into 2017 what we’re looking for is when this indicator goes green, that tends to be a pretty good buy the dip signals so you can see here these pullbacks last time round pretty much gave us a good time to enter the market. Because it was buying price and pullback significantly. This on chain indicator is telling us that certain on chain wallets are selling at a loss, which is very unusual in the bull market. And thereafter, price tends to rally. And you can see it happened probably about seven or eight times in the last bull market. And this time around, it’s been really useful to actually. And we look we were talking over a decent trader, when we had that pullback from 12 to 10. That was a really good buy the dip opportunity here. Because this indicator was flashing green. We had it again when we had that pullback from 57 to 46. And the reason why I’m showing it today is because we also had one the other day. So these these signals don’t happen very often, as you can see in a Bitcoin bull market. But when they do really worth paying attention to and we had one, like a few days ago, I think last weekend, when we had that, that pullback, that final dip into the sort of $48,000 level. So that’s another reason use an on chain data while we think this pullback is probably fairly done now. It doesn’t mean we can’t go lower. And but we certainly got on chain a pretty good signal that it was, you know, the market was bottoming here. So yeah, we like to use this one too. It’s really, really useful for looking for levels to enter back into the market when we’re in a bull run. And so we found this tool.
Louis Thomas 29:34
No, that’s great. I mean, I mean, everything so far seems to be pointing to very much a kind of bullish perspective both in the short term, the more kind of medium term for Bitcoin. I don’t know if you have any, any further charts now Phillip, or if I go back to filby for a moment,
Unknown Speaker 29:48
and now that’s it. So listen, I’ll hand back over to Phil. Phil, you could probably just take over
Unknown Speaker 29:54
Well, actually, I was gonna say Phil, you might as well show the KPI report and how we sort of keep an eye on the whole From a
Unknown Speaker 30:01
high level, yeah, so we obviously spend a lot of time looking at all these different indicators. And there’s, we have a list of about 20 of them that we use. But we do also try and condense it all just to give a sense as to like you just St. Louis how to try and understand how close are we to the end of the cycle or the beginning of the cycle. So this is like a dashboard that we built using some of those indicators. So you can see here, the first one that I just talked about. And we just have a simple nought to 100 scale for each of them. And a score here, which kind of gives us a bit of a sense, like a real quick view point as to whether we are getting particularly overheated or not. And you can see at the moment that some of them are saying we’re sort of about two thirds of the way through probably the cycle. Some others are saying we’re only about halfway through. So it does give a pretty good steer as to roughly where we believe we are in the cycle. And we do think that there is still quite a bit of upside to go. Before we start talking about when when some of these start reaching the 100 level. Because that’s probably our viewpoint at the moment. And then we do have a couple that haven’t shown today that which are more short term, which actually suggests that Bitcoin is pretty oversold at the moment, actually, in sort of near term, sort of daily weekly levels, probably got a bottom forming Now we could have some more upside to come.
Louis Thomas 31:35
That’s brilliant, people are definitely welcome that.
Unknown Speaker 31:40
Let’s see if it plays out that way. But that’s that’s roughly how we’re seeing it using a lot of these on chain tools at the moment and a lot of these large charts.
Unknown Speaker 31:47
Great. So I mean, in terms of so let’s talk opium right. Because we’re sort of saying we’re not nearly at the top yet, or, you know, we’re, we’re sort of to the two thirds of the way through. And this was a chart that our key, dreamt up, back then June 20, June 2018, where I thought we would effectively bottom around 3k ish, and then either we would, the market would run quicker. And the logic behind that was effectively, you know, like efficient market hypothesis where investors would understand what they were in getting into, and the halving was coming in, therefore, we’d have a quicker run, or, you know, take a little bit longer. And we effectively followed quite a bit, we almost went with Plan A, but we ended up with Plan B. And obviously, that sort of suggests that we’re like, on the way towards, you know, maybe 200 ish at a push. And so that’s, that’s where, you know, the, that’s the unbiased where I thought we might be at view. And I think he even said in here, yes, with 150 100 250k being the top somewhere in the second half of 2021. So that was a long time ago. But we seem to be on that path. That’s brilliant. I
Louis Thomas 33:17
just got to say, I got a really attractive sales incredible.
Unknown Speaker 33:21
Thanks. Yeah, I mean, it’s better luck, obviously. But the actual thought process behind it, you know, you can go back and read it, and it has actually held true, you know, throughout. So it does kind of go with the mentality that, you know, we are in this cyclical thing with Bitcoin with, which is basically where we’re on like a, an S curve rate of adoption. And so yeah, it just kind of makes sense, you know. Now, this one’s a bit more wacky, if you like. But it’s interesting in previous cycles of use these Fibonacci circles, where basically you take the top of the previous markets top to the bottom of the bear market. And you can see interestingly, that, in each of the instances, the outer circle, which is the 3.618, has marked the top of the next bull market. Actually, I think you commented on this one
Unknown Speaker 34:19
Unknown Speaker 34:20
like something to do with wizardry, are
Louis Thomas 34:24
you I still maintain You’re a wizard.
Unknown Speaker 34:27
Digital lucky, I think. But But yeah, so you do the same with the previous market. And, you know, it comes to 3.618 is roughly 20k. And, you know, the same thing this time, tells you like roughly 200. So, if we get the same same, as we’ve heard before, like there is potential that that’s where the blow off would, would take us, you know, like, old analysis that I’ve done, would suggest that was the case and new analysis. Based on today, I would say that there’s nothing to suggest that that wouldn’t be true. So I remain bullish Lee hope in my home state that we could get there. The big question obviously is like, what happens at 100k? Because, you know, we all said for a long time, or Yeah, we’ll definitely sell Bitcoin at six figures. But now we’re all sort of saying, Well, actually, we think it can go higher. And it’s just funny how the narrative actually changes. I mean, when we were sort of at 3000, the idea of not selling at 100k would have been absurd, you know. But now, you know, with what’s happened, you know, institutions, putting institutions buying in offering to traditional finance methods, you know, like, we may see an ETF come on board, but also fundamentally corporates, big corporates, putting Bitcoin in their reserves, on their balance sheets is just like something that would, we sort of all sort of joked about, like, No jokes about what kind of that was the sort of hopium adoption that we’re, we’re thinking of, and it has actually happened now. So, you know, What’s the idea? What’s the chances of them panic selling? Well, actually, we did see that Ilan, and Tesla did sell off some of their holdings, which I think’s perfectly rational thing to do, actually, you know, after you’ve made a really good return on investment, you know, any corporate is going to think about releasing some of that for cash flow purposes. And he did sort of say, Oh, you know, it’s was to test liquidity in the market, which is a bit to be honest. But, you know, whatever you need to say, he did ultimately prove that he can exit in size, which is somewhat of a good signal to other potential, you know, finance directors, or CFOs, who are thinking about doing the same thing. So, that’s all really good. And so yeah, who knows what’s gonna happen at 100? Like, my personal strategy is that I will, you know, take some profits on the way up, I’m very much a had an investment plan from down in 3k. And, you know, you know, I want to, you know, live my life some water and actually spend some of these gains, so, I’ll never sell out of my, my whole position in Bitcoin, because, believe it or not, I do believe in the tech and the fundamentals, and so on. But, you know, I feel as though, you know, Phil and I, decent trader have got a really good toolkit and approach to sort of, to manage that. So, as we go through the cycle, you know, I’m going to focus more on, you know, my indicators to sort of strictly tell me how to behave, because this markets of extreme emotion, I mean, how many other markets are people obsessing over how many Tesla shares they’ve got, or how, you know, Procter and Gamble shares, or like any other random company, like nobody sort of, like huddling onto the position and stuff, like the way we do see, that’s why you see these emotional, big swings and stuff. But, you know, it’s glorious to trade, obviously. But at the same time, you don’t want to be sort of clutching your your bag for potentially three years through a bear market, or some people might not care, you know, but I do somewhat, and there’s an opportunity there. So yeah, the indicators that we use, particularly the mix between price action, and the on chain stuff, trade makes you keep a level head, you know, like things like Phil was sharing earlier, like software and things, which sort of gave you that confidence, actually, that you can buy the dip, rather than just sort of blindly sort of pressing the buy bucket button on like a 5% pullback, because it’s a dip, you know, we’ve got a more educated market intelligence approach to how to do that alongside actually, you know, the day trade and kind of tools.
Unknown Speaker 39:03
other stuff that I actually like to look at is, for example, this is the trader platform, you can see the depth of the bids, versus the asks. So the ratio of how many buyers there are two sellers within a given price range. And again, you can see that that has actually been very useful. in the run up that we’ve had so far. As we’ve we’ve nearly always had, you know, buyers coming in on the dips, and then you can see where the sellers are as well. So the combination of these sorts of tools really, really sort of helps us. other platforms that I like to use are, you know, you’ve probably once you’ve seen before, crypto Kant thought I had this on here. Yeah, here we are. crypto cons quite interesting. Because you can see the minor how the miners are behaving again, you know, one of my more successful long term views of the market is around actually how the miners behave. So, back in July 17, when we topped out in, sorry, July 19, when we topped out, you know, it was, it was quite obvious to me that the miners will probably going to sell off some of their gains into the halving cycle, which is how, you know, if you roughly equate what the what the marginal cost is of the miners, you can sort of see where their head will be at in terms of selling. But in those days, it was a little bit more speculative as to how I was coming up with this stuff, because I couldn’t actually see the miners and how they’re actually behaving. But actually, now what we have is, you know, the ability to see actually how the miners behave. And the green line here is the miners reserve, and we can see that the miners did do quite a big sell off when they had reserves of about 25k Bitcoins. But now, you know, they are huddling that position as well, which is which is good to see. So they are not panicking either. Because, obviously, in order for us to get to the final stage of the market, you know, the miners holding their supply to the to the market, there’s this whole game through where everyone basically is incentivized to not sell. And so we need to see the miners continue to do this. And you can see back in the bear market effects effectively the the miners capitulated right at the end and just basically dumped everything when we got back to like, around was about nine or 10k in the previous cycle. So so that that again, all looks good. So so that’s really Bitcoin. And I thought I might touch on a theorem, we are actually selling off a little bit at the moment, I think if we do sell off today, this red line actually is the 1 trillion market cap for Bitcoin. Very important level, I think, for us to stay above and hold. So I don’t really want to see the day closing below about 53 600. That’s like my sort of bullish bearish line in the sand at the moment. So it’ll be interesting to see how we do today.